Back in May we successfully called the outcome of the General Election, predicting that the Conservatives’ large aggregated following across social channels would provide them with a clear victory – despite pollsters’ claims the margin would be much narrower.
Buoyed by past successes in electoral punditry, we decided to turn our attention to the ongoing Labour Party leadership contest. Having discovered Twitter was the most popular social channel among Labour supporters during the pre-election research, we thought that it was only right that Twitter would provide us with the best insight into Labour supporters’ sentiments.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the remarkable amount of enthusiasm that his old-school brand of parliamentary socialism has aroused, Corbyn emerges frontrunner. His 38% share of the ‘vote’ puts him firmly ahead of Andy Burnham (27% share), Yvette Cooper (23% share) and Liz Kendall (12% share). Furthermore, the research also suggests that Corbyn possesses a significant amount of momentum as the race draws to its conclusion; over the last two weeks the Islington MP’s following has jumped an impressive 18%.
Once again EMR’s predictions are slightly different to the polling companies’. According to a recent poll from YouGov, Corbyn has a massive 32 point lead over the other candidates, which should see him win during the first round of voting. However, EMR’s research suggests Corbyn’s lead may not be great enough to see him win during the first round of voting – placing him at the liberty of the Party’s alternative vote system.